But mortgage rates are expected to finish the year at 6.4%, economists forecast. And most are not able to confidently predict when they will go below 6%. It has been nearly three years since the 30-year rate was below 6%. During the height of the pandemic, the average 30-year rate dropped to 2.67%. That was in late 2020.

Mortgage rates need to get below 6% to reinvigorate the frosty housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households, NAR economists shared at the July 16 Real Estate Forecast Summit.